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  • 2020年螺纹钢春节累库知多少?
  • 本站编辑:杭州天程钢铁有限公司发布日期:2020-01-31 15:12 浏览次数:

摘要

1、2017年至今,螺纹钢春节社库累库呈现出明显规律性变化趋势:(1)螺纹钢春节累库持续时间大约在14周(含春节周)左右;(2)累库绝对幅度在1000万吨左右;(3)平均每周累库60万吨左右,周均产量300万吨左右;(4)节前累库时间持续高于节后,普遍在节后3-4周开始去库,这也与下游终端施工工地在正月十五以后陆续复工相关;(5)需要注意的是,自2017年至今,春节前后螺纹钢产量不断上升。

2、春节前后累库驱动因素:(1)产量方面,预计节后螺纹钢供给承压。2020年节前电炉钢亏损,电炉开工率下行,但长流程钢厂盈利尚可,环保限产力度边际减弱叠加长流程钢厂检修延迟,导致2020年节前螺纹钢产量降幅相对稳定且高于近3年同期水平。(2)终端需求方面,资金面宽松,专项债提前下发、发行规模增加且不能用于棚改和土储项目,对基建的实际拉动效果料将显著强于去年。因此,2020年节后复工看好基建复苏。

3、2020年节后库存测算: (1)推演1:预计2020年螺纹钢库存(社库+厂库)在节后4周左右达到顶点,较去年同期增加50万吨左右。目前节前2周螺纹钢产量高于去年同期10万吨左右,线性外推,节后螺纹钢库存(社库+厂库)累库幅度或高于去年同期50万吨左右。(2)推演2:预计2020年螺纹钢库存(社库+厂库)在节后4周左右达到顶点,较去年同期高15万吨。节后4周,近2年螺纹钢库存可用天数均值为4.32天,近2年螺纹钢产量均值为318万吨,推算出2020年节后4周螺纹钢库存(社库+厂库)顶点为1374万吨。我们认为,推演2以平均值为基准,从统计测算角度看更合理,但目前供给端不可忽视的就是螺纹钢高产量。因此,尽管推演1假设条件更严格,但推演1结果或许对现实的拟合程度相对更高。

4、行情展望:我们认为螺纹钢终端需求决定方向,而供给影响节奏。在盈利驱动下的高供给使得钢价承压,预计2020年上半年钢价或成V型走势。

终端需求:看好节后终端需求复苏。逆周期调节发力,资金面宽松,全面降准及专项债发行明显优于去年同期,看好节后基建复苏。从这从价格及价差变化趋势亦能得到印证:(1)从整体趋势来看,我们以螺纹钢社库/厂库代表春节前后贸易商冬储补库,春节前后,贸易商冬储投机行为本身就包含了行业中游需求以及对节后需求复苏预期。而相应的,螺纹钢社库/厂库与螺纹钢期货价格高度相关;(2)螺纹钢期货05-09价差来看,1-4月份,整体上螺纹钢社库/厂库与05-09价差正相关。节奏上,螺纹钢期货05-09合约价差在节前减少后扩大,尤其以2018年更为明显。

供给:高供给掣肘螺纹钢价格。2020年春节后供给承压,测算出节后螺纹钢库存较去年同期增加50万吨左右,接近近年峰值。参照2018年,2018年节后螺纹钢库存合计突破1400万吨,为近年最高位,累库幅度达到263%。在期货相对低贴水+现货高库存压力下,在节后螺纹钢库存合计到达顶点前,螺纹钢期货价格、螺纹钢05-09价差出现一波回调,而后螺纹钢期货价格与05-09价差上行。

5、策略建议:建议待节后钢价震荡回调后,择机做多螺纹钢05合约、持有螺纹钢05-09正套。

6、风险提示:节后基建复苏不及预期、螺纹钢产量超预期

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一  近3年春节螺纹钢产量、库存

2017年至今,螺纹钢春节社库累库呈现出明显规律性变化趋势:(1)螺纹钢春节累库持续时间大约在14周(含春节周)左右;(2)累库绝对幅度在1000万吨左右;(3)平均每周累库60万吨左右,周均产量300万吨左右;(4)节前累库时间持续高于节后,普遍在节后3-4周开始去库,这也与下游终端施工工地在正月十五以后陆续复工相关;(5)需要注意的是,自2017年至今,春节前后螺纹钢产量不断上升;(6)螺纹钢社库与库存合计(社库+厂库)累库基本一致,社库+厂库累库持续时间较社库略多1周左右,累库绝对值略高100-150万吨左右,周均累库幅度高5-10万吨左右。

二   螺纹钢春节累库因素分析

从驱动因素来说,螺纹钢库存合计(社库+厂库)累库的主要影响因素有以下两个方面:一是螺纹钢淡季产量,二是终端需求消费。

产量方面,2020年节前电炉钢亏损,电炉开工率下行,但长流程钢厂盈利尚可,环保限产力度边际减弱叠加检修延迟,导致2020年节前产量较高。从全国高炉检修与限产每天影响铁水产量来看,2019年11-12月份,该指标均大幅低于2018年、2019年水平。相应的,19年11-12月份,全国主要螺纹钢钢厂开工率也明显高于2018年、2019年同期水平。预计2020年春节前后,延续螺纹钢产量呈现下行趋势,而在长、短流程相对稳定的盈利结构下,产量降幅相对稳定,节后供给相对承压。

终端需求消费方面,从节前15周到节前4周,螺纹钢终端消费高于去年同期,主要是房地产需求韧性、暖冬及2020年春节提前导致的赶工需求影响;从节前4周开始,螺纹钢终端需求消费开始低于去年同期。展望后市,看好2020年节后基建复苏,主要是:(1)资金面较为宽松,1月份已经开启降准,节后依然有降息降准概率;(2)2019年11月27日,财政部决定提前下达2020年部分新增专项债务额度1万亿,总体新增额度较去年高1900亿元,并且提前发行的专项债不能用于棚改和土储项目。2019年一季度新发行的6660.2亿元的专项债中,约有73%的比例投向了土储和棚改相关项目,因此对基建相关的项目支持力度有限。若今年提前下发的额度不能用于土储和棚改,预计2020年基建相关专项债新增额度较去年同期大幅增加,对基建的实际拉动效果料将显著强于去年。(3)2020年1月份专项债发行计划规模为6450亿,专项债发行节奏前置且1月份发行规模明显高于去年同期。

三  2020年春节前后螺纹钢累库情况推演

2020年春节后的螺纹库存是否会超过去年的高点?

推演1 预计2020年螺纹钢库存(社库+厂库)在节后4周左右达到顶点,较去年同期增加50万吨左右。按照中性预计,假定2020年终端需求与2019年基本一致,由于2020年节前产量处于近3年高位水平,盈利结构也相对稳定。因此,保守假设2020年节前产量变化相对去年一致,目前节前2周螺纹钢产量高于去年同期10万吨左右,按照线性外推,螺纹钢库存(社库+厂库)累库幅度或高于去年同期50万吨左右。

推演2 预计2020年螺纹钢库存(社库+厂库)在节后4周左右达到顶点,较去年同期高15万吨。我们以螺纹钢可用库存天数(螺纹钢库存合计/螺纹钢产量)来衡量相对一定产量水平的库存积累情况,亦能代表终端需求的强弱。以节后4周,近2年螺纹钢库存可用天数均值为4.32天,近2年螺纹钢产量均值为318万吨,推算出2020年节后4周螺纹钢库存(社库+厂库)顶点为1374万吨,较去年同期顶点高15万吨。

我们认为,推演2以平均值为基准,从统计测算角度看更合理,但目前供给端不可忽视的就是螺纹钢高产量。因此,尽管推演1假设条件更严格,但推演1结果或许对现实的拟合程度相对更高。

四  需求决定方向,供给影响节奏,预计2020上半年钢材或成V型走势

展望后市,螺纹钢价格将如何变化?我们认为螺纹钢终端需求决定方向,而盈利驱动下的高供给使得钢价承压,预计2020年上半年钢价或成V型走势。

(1)终端需求方面:节后看好节后终端需求复苏。据前文结论,逆周期调节发力,资金面较为宽松,全面降准及专项债发行明显优于去年同期,看好节后基建复苏。

一是从价格整体变化趋势来看,春节前后,市场主要逻辑是节后终端需求复苏预期及贸易商冬储。我们以螺纹钢社库/厂库代表春节前后贸易商冬储补库水平,春节前后,贸易商冬储投机行为本身就包含了行业中游需求以及对节后需求复苏预期。相应的,螺纹钢社库/厂库与螺纹钢期货价格高度相关。我们预计2020年,春节前后贸易商冬储或将不及往年,主要是尽管2019年4季度市场修复了悲观预期,市场看好节后上半年需求,但是19年冬储季节,钢价依然相对高位,贸易商依然较为谨慎,冬储力度不及预期,这从螺纹钢社库/厂库比值低于近3年水,螺纹钢社库处于低位,螺纹钢厂库处于近3年高位,得以印证。

二是螺纹钢期货05-09价差来看,1-4月份,伴随着螺纹钢社库/厂库比值提升,螺纹钢期货05-09合约价差在节前减少后扩大,尤其以2018年更为明显。这也很好理解,节前,贸易商由冬储驱动,贸易商掌控螺纹钢定价权,尽量压低螺纹钢价格叠加社库累库,螺纹钢近月合约承压,远月合约价格压力较小;节后,伴随着贸易商冬储,社库/厂库比值愈加变大,市场逻辑关注下游终端需求的启动,进入主动去库阶段,钢厂掌控定价权,尽量抬高螺纹钢价格,螺纹钢期货近月价格有所支撑,远月合约价格承压。

(2)供给方面:高供给掣肘螺纹钢价格。据前文结论,2019年四季度长流程钢厂盈利尚可,减产意愿相对较弱,淡季螺纹钢产量虽然呈下降趋势,但依然高于近3年同期,预计2020年节后4周库存达到顶点,高于去年同期50万吨左右,达到1410万吨左右。参照2018年,2018年节后螺纹钢库存(社库+厂库)突破1400万吨,为近年最高位,累库幅度达到263%。在期货低贴水+现货高库存压力下,在节后螺纹钢库存合计到达顶点前,螺纹钢期货价格、螺纹钢05-09价差出现一波回调,而后螺纹钢期货价格与05-09价差上行。

综上,我们认为2020年上半年螺纹钢价格节奏上会呈现V型走势,建议待节后钢价回落后,做多螺纹钢05合约、持有螺纹钢05-09正套。(1)从整体变化趋势来看,在冬储驱动叠加节后旺季需求启动,长周期来看,2020年春节前后螺纹钢期货价格表现较为强势;(2)终端需求:逆周期调节发力,资金面较为宽松,全面降准及专项债发行明显优于去年同期,看好节后基建复苏,决定钢价走势方向。(3)从价格变化节奏来看,目前螺纹钢产量相对较高,长流程减产相对不及预期,叠加节后螺纹钢库存(厂库+社库)高于去年同期,掣肘螺纹钢价格,螺纹钢价格或震荡回调。(4)节后终端需求启动后,进入主动去库阶段,钢厂掌控定价权,库存压力相对有所缓解,螺纹钢远月合约价格承压,螺纹钢05-09合约价差扩大。

1. From 2017 to now, the accumulated stock of Spring Festival of screw steel shows obvious regular change trend: (1) the accumulated stock of Spring Festival of screw steel lasts for about 14 weeks (including spring festival week); (2) the absolute range of accumulated stock is about 10 million tons; (3) the average accumulated stock of each week is about 600000 tons, and the average weekly output is about 3 million tons; (4) the accumulated stock time before the festival is higher than that after the festival, and generally after the Festival 3- It is also related to the downstream terminal construction site returning to work after the 15th day of the first month; (5) it should be noted that since 2017, the production of screw steel has been increasing before and after the Spring Festival.

2. Before and after the Spring Festival, the driving factors for the accumulation: (1) in terms of production, it is expected that the supply of screw steel will be under pressure after the festival. In 2020, the electric furnace steel will be in deficit and the operation rate of the electric furnace will go down, but the profit of the long process steel plant will be acceptable. The marginal reduction of environmental protection and production restriction will weaken the maintenance delay of the long process steel plant, resulting in the relatively stable decline of the screw steel production in 2020 and higher than the same period level in recent three years. (2) In terms of terminal demand, the funds are loose, special bonds are issued in advance, the scale of issuance is increased, and they can not be used in the shed reform and soil storage projects. The actual pulling effect on infrastructure construction is expected to be significantly stronger than last year. Therefore, return to work after 2020 is optimistic about infrastructure recovery.

3. Estimation of inventory after 2020 Festival: (1) deduction 1: it is estimated that the inventory of screw steel (SOCIAL warehouse + factory warehouse) will reach its peak around four weeks after the festival in 2020, with an increase of about 500000 tons compared with the same period last year. At present, the output of deformed steel bars in the first two weeks of the festival is about 100000 tons higher than that in the same period of last year, which is linear extrapolation. The accumulated inventory range of deformed steel bars (SOCIAL warehouse + factory warehouse) after the festival is about 500000 tons higher than that in the same period of last year. (2) Deduction 2: it is estimated that in 2020, the rebar stock (social stock + factory stock) will reach its peak around four weeks after the festival, 150000 tons higher than the same period last year. Four weeks after the festival, the average available days of rebar stock in recent two years is 4.32 days, and the average output of rebar in recent two years is 3.18 million tons. It is calculated that the peak of rebar stock (social stock + factory stock) in the four weeks after the festival in 2020 is 13.74 million tons. We think that deduction 2 is more reasonable based on the average value from the perspective of statistical calculation, but at present, the high output of screw steel cannot be ignored at the supply end. Therefore, although the hypothesis of deduction 1 is more strict, the result of deduction 1 may have a higher degree of fitting to reality.

4. Market outlook: we believe that the terminal demand of screw steel determines the direction, while the supply affects the rhythm. The high supply driven by profit makes the steel price under pressure. It is expected that the steel price will be V-shaped in the first half of 2020.

Terminal demand: optimistic about the recovery of terminal demand after the festival. With the help of counter cyclical adjustment and loose capital, the overall reduction of standards and issuance of special bonds are significantly better than that of the same period last year, and we are optimistic about the recovery of infrastructure construction after the festival. It can also be confirmed from the change trend of price and price difference: (1) from the overall trend, we use the screw steel Club warehouse / factory warehouse to represent the traders' winter storage and replenishment before and after the Spring Festival. Before and after the Spring Festival, the traders' winter storage speculation itself contains the industry's midstream demand and the recovery expectation of the demand after the festival. Accordingly, the price difference between screw steel Club warehouse / factory warehouse and screw steel futures is highly correlated; (2) from the perspective of the price difference of screw steel futures 05-09, from January to April, the price difference between screw steel Club warehouse / factory warehouse and 05-09 is positively correlated on the whole. In terms of rhythm, the price difference of screw steel futures 05-09 contract increased after decreasing before the festival, especially in 2018.

Supply: high supply limit screw steel price. After the Spring Festival in 2020, the supply will be under pressure. It is estimated that the inventory of post Festival deformed steel bars will increase by about 500000 tons compared with the same period last year, close to the peak in recent years. Referring to 2018, the total inventory of deformed steel bars after the festival in 2018 exceeded 14 million tons, which was the highest level in recent years, with a cumulative inventory of 263%. Under the pressure of relatively low discount in futures and high stock in spot, before the total amount of rebar stock reaches the peak after the festival, there is a wave of callback in the price difference between rebar futures and rebar 05-09, and then the price difference between rebar futures and rebar 05-09 rises.

5. Strategy suggestion: it is suggested to make multi thread steel 05 contract and hold thread steel 05-09 positive set after steel price shock callback.

6. Risk tip: the recovery of infrastructure after the festival is not as expected, and the output of screw steel is more than expected

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Production and inventory of screw steel in recent three years

From 2017 to now, the accumulated storage of Spring Festival of screw steel shows obvious regular change trend: (1) the accumulated storage duration of Spring Festival of screw steel is about 14 weeks (including spring festival week); (2) the absolute range of accumulated storage is about 10 million tons; (3) the average accumulated storage per week is about 600000 tons, and the average weekly output is about 3 million tons; (4) the accumulated storage duration before the festival is higher than that after the festival, generally 3-4 weeks after the festival Starting to go to the warehouse is also related to the downstream terminal construction site returning to work after the 15th day of the first month; (5) it should be noted that since 2017, the production of deformed steel bars has been on the rise before and after the Spring Festival; (6) the accumulated warehouse of deformed steel bars and the total inventory (SOCIAL warehouse + factory warehouse) is basically the same, and the accumulated time of social warehouse + factory warehouse is about 1 week longer than that of social warehouse, and the absolute value of accumulated warehouse is slightly higher 1-1.5 million tons The average weekly accumulation range is about 50000-100000 tons.

II. Analysis of accumulated factors of screw steel in Spring Festival

In terms of driving factors, the main factor of the total inventory (social inventory + factory inventory) of screw steel