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  • 世界钢铁协会发布最新钢铁需求预测
  • 本站编辑:杭州天程钢铁有限公司发布日期:2019-09-19 11:22 浏览次数:

世界钢铁协会近日发布了2018年4月编制的短期钢铁需求预测结果。世界钢铁协会预测全球钢铁需求2018年将达到16.161亿吨,较2017年增长1.8%。到2019年,预计全球钢铁需求将增长0.7%,达到16.267亿吨。

    在对预测结果发表评论时,世界钢铁协会市场研究委员会主席t.v.narendran先生表示:“未来几年,得益于发达经济体投资复苏及信心水平不断提振,全球经济形势预计将继续保持良好势头。受益于此,发达经济体和发展中经济体的钢铁需求有望持续增长,受风险因素影响则相对有限。然而,贸易紧张局势加剧可能带来的负面影响,以及美国和欧盟可能加息,或将削弱当前的增长势头。”

    全球经济增长势头带动钢铁需求增长,但面临全球贸易紧张局势加剧的风险

    本次预测结果指出的上行和下行风险基本平衡。2018年,消费者信心的提振、强劲的投资水平和大宗商品价格的回升,正在为发达经济体和发展中经济体的钢铁需求创造一个良性循环。2019年,中国经济进一步减速,以及利率调高将导致投资增长势头减弱,钢铁需求将出现小幅放缓。

    贸易紧张局势或将加剧、通胀压力攀升及美国和欧盟货币政策收紧或将造成金融市场波动及导致高负债的新兴经济体深陷泥潭等将构成主要的下行风险。

    中国钢铁需求增长将重回放缓态势

    2017年,中国政府的温和刺激措施小幅拉动了建筑市场的增长,但投资活动继续减速,钢铁需求仅现微幅增长。

    2018年和2019年,中国的gdp增长预计将小幅放缓,但随着政府继续将增长动力转向消费,投资活动增长或将进一步减速。预计2018年的钢铁需求将保持平稳。到2019年,随着建筑活动进一步放缓,钢铁需求预计将下降2.0%。制造业和机械行业有望在强劲的全球经济的支撑下保持正增长,而汽车和家用电器行业的用钢需求预计将放缓。

    发达经济体的钢铁需求前景依然强劲

    发达国家的钢铁需求预计在2018年将增长1.8%,到2019年将降至1.1%。在高涨的消费者信心、收入增长及低利率提振消费和投资活动等强劲的经济基本面支撑下,美国钢铁需求前景依然强劲。美元贬值和投资活动增加支撑着制造业,而房价不断上涨及非住宅行业稳定增长预示建筑业基本面良好。尽管近期的税制改革有望通过对投资活动产生积极影响,进而拉动钢铁需求,但人们对经济可能过热的担忧有所加剧。已公布的基础设施建设计划在短期内不太可能影响钢铁需求。

    欧盟经济发展势头强劲,各国经济复苏范围不断扩大。在强劲的国内和外部需求的共同推动下,投资活动预计仍将是主要增长动力,而低通胀、工资和实际收入增长将支撑私人消费。钢铁需求将从非住宅建设和强劲制造业活动中获得支撑。

    欧盟和美国的汽车用钢行业受饱和效应及利率上升因素影响增长将会放缓,而机械用钢行业预计将从投资活动的增长中获益。预计美国和欧盟的货币紧缩政策将导致2019年钢铁需求增长放缓。日本的钢铁需求受益于投资信心的改善和政府的刺激政策,但经济增长的范围将继续受到人口老龄化等结构性因素的限制。

    尽管消费者信心有所改善,但韩国的钢铁需求增长将受到消费者债务高企、建筑业疲软以及造船业低迷的制约。

    发展中经济体的复苏势头强劲,但仍须积蓄动能

    新兴经济体和发展中经济体(除中国以外)的钢铁需求预计将在2018年和2019年分别增长4.9%和4.5%。

    石油和大宗商品价格的回升改善了中东和北非国家的钢铁需求前景。如果地缘政治稳定得以实现,该地区的钢铁需求前景可能会因重建活动而进一步改善。

    俄罗斯和巴西经济的温和复苏有望持续。俄罗斯的经济复苏将受到信贷扩张、宽松的货币政策和消费者与企业信心改善的支撑。2017年初,巴西经济开始走出深度衰退,但这种复苏势头的可持续性仍存在不确定性。此外,建筑活动恢复缓慢。其他拉丁美洲国家经济也开始走向复苏,如果实施改革,该地区的经济增长可能会加速,但即将到来的选举会带来不确定性。

    在政府采取支持性措施的支持下,土耳其的钢铁需求在2017年表现强劲。随着经济刺激政策的影响逐步减弱,钢铁需求小幅放缓,但土耳其的钢铁需求预计将在2018/19年实现稳定增长。

    印度经济正从货币改革和商品和服务税实施的影响中企稳,钢铁需求受公共投资推动有望逐步增速。疲软的私人投资限制钢铁需求的强劲增长。

    东盟5国的钢铁需求在2017年有所下降,主要是受建筑活动放缓和去库存化影响,然而,在基础设施投资的支撑下,2018和2019年钢铁需求预计将重获增长动能。

The world iron and steel association has released its short-term steel demand forecast compiled in April 2018. The world iron and steel association predicts that global steel demand will reach 1.616.1 billion tons in 2018, up 1.8 percent from 2017. Global steel demand is expected to grow 0.7 percent to 1.6267 billion tons by 2019.

Commenting on the forecast, t.v.narendran, chairman of the world iron and steel association's market research committee, said: "the global economy is expected to continue to perform well over the next few years, thanks to the investment recovery and rising confidence levels in advanced economies. As a result, steel demand in developed and developing economies is expected to continue to grow, with relatively limited exposure to risk factors. However, the potential negative impact of increased trade tensions and the possibility of higher interest rates in the us and eu could weaken current growth momentum."

The momentum of global economic growth is driving demand for steel, but risks escalating global trade tensions

The upside and downside risks identified in this forecast are basically balanced. The boost in consumer confidence, strong investment levels and a rebound in commodity prices in 2018 are creating a virtuous circle for steel demand in both developed and developing economies. In 2019, China's economy will slow further and higher interest rates will lead to weaker investment growth, leading to a slight slowdown in steel demand.

Rising trade tensions, rising inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy in the U.S. and the European Union, which could lead to financial market volatility and deep troubles in highly indebted emerging economies, pose major downside risks.

China's steel demand growth will slow again

In 2017, the Chinese government's mild stimulus measures slightly boosted growth in the construction market, but investment activity continued to slow and steel demand grew only slightly.

China's GDP growth is expected to slow slightly in 2018 and 2019, but investment activity growth is likely to slow further as the government continues to shift the engine of growth towards consumption. Steel demand is expected to remain flat in 2018. Steel demand is expected to fall 2.0 per cent by 2019 as construction activity slows further. The manufacturing and machinery sectors are expected to maintain positive growth on the back of a strong global economy, while demand for steel for cars and home appliances is expected to slow.

The outlook for steel demand in developed economies remains strong

Steel demand in developed countries is expected to grow 1.8 percent in 2018 and fall to 1.1 percent in 2019. The outlook for us steel demand remains strong, supported by strong economic fundamentals such as high consumer confidence, rising incomes and low interest rates that have boosted consumption and investment activity. Manufacturing is supported by a falling dollar and increased investment activity, while rising house prices and steady growth in the non-residential sector point to sound construction fundamentals. While recent tax changes are expected to boost steel demand by having a positive impact on investment activity, concerns about the economy overheating have increased. The announced infrastructure plans are unlikely to affect steel demand in the short term.

The eu economy enjoys a strong momentum of development and the scope of economic recovery is expanding. Investment activity is expected to remain the main driver of growth, driven by strong domestic and external demand, while low inflation, wage and real income growth will support private consumption. Steel demand will be supported by non-residential construction and strong manufacturing activity.

The automotive steel industry in the eu and us will slow down due to saturation effects and rising interest rates, while the mechanical steel industry is expected to benefit from increased investment activity. Monetary tightening in the us and eu is expected to slow steel demand growth in 2019. Japanese steel demand has benefited from improved investment confidence and government stimulus, but the scope of economic growth will continue to be constrained by structural factors such as an ageing population.

Despite the improvement in consumer confidence, steel demand growth in South Korea will be constrained by high consumer debt, weak construction and a weak shipbuilding industry.

The recovery in developing economies is strong, but it still needs momentum

Steel demand in emerging and developing economies excluding China is expected to grow 4.9 per cent in 2018 and 4.5 per cent in 2019.

The recovery in oil and commodity prices has improved the outlook for steel demand in the Middle East and north Africa. If geopolitical stability is achieved, the outlook for steel demand in the region could be further improved by reconstruction activities.

Modest recoveries in Russia and Brazil are expected to continue. Russia's economic recovery will be supported by an expansion of credit, easy monetary policy and improved consumer and business confidence. Brazil's economy began to emerge from a deep recession in early 2017, but uncertainty remains about the sustainability of the recovery. Moreover, construction activity has been slow to recover. Other Latin American economies are also starting to recover, and growth in the region could accelerate if reforms are implemented, but the upcoming elections will create uncertainty.

Steel demand in Turkey was strong in 2017, supported by supportive government measures. Steel demand in Turkey is expected to grow steadily in 2018/19, although it has slowed slightly as the impact of economic stimulus wears off.

India's economy is stabilizing from currency reforms and the implementation of goods and services taxes, and steel demand is expected to grow gradually, driven by public investment. Weak private investment has limited strong growth in steel demand.

Steel demand in the five asean countries declined in 2017, mainly due to slowing construction activity and destocking. However, steel demand is expected to regain momentum in 2018 and 2019, supported by infrastructure investment.