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  • 钢铁行业周涨幅3.42% 板块配置价值凸显
  • 本站编辑:杭州天程钢铁有限公司发布日期:2019-09-19 11:20 浏览次数:

此前,情绪扰动致现货、股价双跌,贸易商出于压力大量销货,钢材社会库存持续下降,钢厂库存上升。上周,钢铁板块有所企稳,周涨幅为3.42%。相较于此前一周3.45%的跌幅,形势已有明显好转。

    根据Wind数据显示,上周前3个交易日,28个申万一级行业中仅有银行、房地产、非银金融和钢铁这4个行业获得主力资金净流入。因此,其实早在上周前几个交易日就已有资金关注且持续流入钢铁行业,这也是行业整体企稳背后最重要的原因。

    中泰证券指出,紧缩周期下需求回落是导致商品下行的核心原因。但与2011年紧缩周期有所不同的是,之前四年工业企业资产负债表修复后没有转向重新扩张,产能周期和库存周期依然健康,导致周期波峰波谷落差较以往振幅收窄。因此商品价格回落走势并不流畅,呈现曲线式摆动下行态势,跌幅过大后将出现一定程度反弹。周期股投资同样主要捕捉类似超跌反弹机会。近期钢价继续反弹,对此前情绪面因素造成的过大跌幅进行修复,伴随价格回升,下游拿货数量提升,近几周库存下降数量可观,从侧面也显示出经济虽然边际放缓,但仍未失速。同时一季报钢企盈利预计虽环比有所回落,但整体仍处于较高区间。板块有阶段性反弹的可能性,博弈反弹行情依然可期。

    分析人士指出,在存量资金主导市场的前提下,主流资金越来越注重业绩增长的兑现。当前,A股仍是存量博弈市场,其投资风格也越来越向价值投资靠拢。在这样的背景下,钢铁这样的周期板块当下业绩确定,行业增长可稳步兑现,整体行业也处于向上周期,在经历调整后,板块配置价值凸显。

Before, emotional disturbance caused spot, stock prices fell, traders due to the pressure of a large number of sales, steel social inventory continued to decline, steel inventory rise. Last week, the steel plate has stabilized, rose 3.42 percent. Compared with the previous week's 3.45 percent decline, the situation has improved significantly.

According to Wind data, in the first three trading days of last week, only four of the 28 primary shenwan industries -- banking, real estate, non-banking finance and steel -- received net inflows of major capital. As a result, in fact, as early as the last few trading days have been concerned about funds and continued to flow into the steel industry, which is the industry as a whole behind the most important reason for stability.

Zhongtai securities pointed out that the tightening cycle under the fall in demand is the core cause of the decline in commodities. However, unlike the 2011 tightening cycle, the balance sheets of industrial enterprises in the previous four years did not turn to re-expansion after repair, and the capacity cycle and inventory cycle remained healthy, resulting in a narrower gap between the peak and trough of the cycle than in the past. Therefore, the decline in commodity prices is not smooth trend, showing a curve swing downward trend, decline too much will appear a certain degree of rebound. Cyclical stock investment also mainly capture similar oversold rebound opportunities. Recently, the steel price continued to rebound, to repair the excessive drop caused by the previous emotional factors, along with the price recovery, the quantity of goods taken downstream increased, in recent weeks, the inventory dropped a considerable amount, from the side also shows that the economy although the marginal slowdown, but still did not stall. At the same time, the quarterly earnings of steel enterprises is expected to decline from the quarter, but the overall is still in a higher range. Plate has the possibility of staged rebound, game rebound market can still period.

Analysts pointed out that under the premise that the stock capital dominates the market, the mainstream capital pays more and more attention to the realization of performance growth. At present, a-share is still A stock game market, and its investment style is more and more close to value investment. In such a background, such as the steel plate of the current performance is determined, the industry growth can be steadily realized, the overall industry is also in an upward cycle, after the adjustment, plate configuration value highlights.